BTC Tumbles Below $30K but is Another Crash to $26,000 Possible? (Bitcoin Price Analysis)

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant drop below the $30,000 mark, leading some investors to question whether the cryptocurrency will crash further to $26,000. This Bitcoin price analysis explores the current market conditions and potential scenarios for BTC, including the possibility of a further downturn. Investors should remain vigilant and stay up to date with market developments to make informed decisions on their Bitcoin investments.

Bitcoin’s Price Struggle to Break $30K Resistance Level

Bitcoin has been experiencing a significant surge in price over the past few months, surpassing several resistance levels. However, the current trend seems to be losing its momentum, with the cryptocurrency struggling to claim the crucial resistance zone of $30K. Bitcoin’s bullish trend towards the next significant resistance zone of around $38K, and inversely, a drop towards the 50-day moving average at $26K or the mid-trendline of the channel at approximately $25K, remains uncertain.

Technical Analysis

According to technical analysis conducted by Shayan, a Bitcoin trader, the price has broken out of its narrow consolidation range near $28K and is attempting to breach the crucial resistance level at $30K. Should Bitcoin succeed in surpassing the resistance level, this may trigger a bullish trend towards the next significant resistance zone of around $38K. However, if it fails to break through, a drop towards support may occur.

Regardless of the outcome, the bulls can remain hopeful as long as the price stays above the 200-day moving average, a crucial indicator for identifying the market’s overall bias.

On-chain Analysis

The Realized Price metric is a crucial tool in determining whether Bitcoin is over or undervalued. During bullish market cycles, it typically remains above the realized price, while during bear markets, it drops below, causing fear and uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s recent movements resemble the 2018 bear market. During the final capitulation phase, the price dropped significantly below the realized price, causing panic. However, the 2019 bull run saw it reclaim the realized price level at around $4K and form a pullback to retest it. Recently, BTC dropped below the realized price but then started a strong uptrend, surpassing the realized price at $20K. After a brief surge, it corrected and retested the level, indicating a healthy bullish trend.


Bitcoin’s price struggle to break the $30K resistance level highlights the uncertainty in the market, and it may take time to gain significant momentum. However, the bulls can remain hopeful, considering the Realized Price metric and Bitcoin’s movement over the past few months. It is essential to conduct your own research and analysis before investing in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency.

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