Filecoin (FIL), a decentralized storage protocol, experienced a 75% rally over the weekend, breaking a six-month period of suppressed price action. After consolidatory price action ranging from $5.00 to $5.50 for over a month, the rally began on February 17, driven by Bitcoin’s push up to $24,500. The rally continued until Sunday, stalling just shy of $10, a level not seen since August 2022. While consolidation has found support around $8, the indicators challenge the theory of a sustained rally. The RSI 14 is still at 76, a clear bearish signal, and Filecoin‘s MACD also shows bearish divergence. The downside risk is significant, with a fall potentially landing at the lower support level around $5.50, a -34.96% move. Upside potential is also present, with historical resistance levels suggesting $11.50 could be the next stop. Overall, Filecoin’s short time frame (STF) risk: reward ratio sits at 1.03, making it a 50/50 toss-up, and a better entry point may be worth waiting for.
