Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Pure Coincidence? Analysis

Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle has been a topic of discussion among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. With each cycle bringing surges and drops in Bitcoin’s price, many wonder if this pattern is just a coincidence or if there is a significant underlying reason behind it. In this analysis, we delve into the historical data of Bitcoin’s price movements, examining market dynamics, investor behavior, and macroeconomic factors to determine whether the 4-year cycle is a mere happenstance or if there is a more complex explanation.

The Relationship Between Bitcoin’s Price Cycles and Halving: Coincidence or Correlation?

Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is known for its four-year price cycles, which align with its “halving” schedule. The halving event reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created every four years, impacting its inflation rate. However, there is an ongoing debate among analysts whether these cyclical movements are truly related to the halving or simply coincidental.

The Impact of Liquidity

One theory proposed by crypto trading analyst TXMC suggests that the timing of the Bitcoin halving is a “wildly convenient coincidence” that coincides with other macroeconomic factors affecting Bitcoin’s price. These factors include interest rate oscillations, annualized equity returns, and manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMIs).

According to TXMC, Bitcoin is not exempt from the influence of liquidity and credit conditions, the cost of money, and the overall flow of the economy. These factors can significantly impact the price of the cryptocurrency.

TXMC’s argument was in response to a Twitter user named “Pledditor” who argued that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles were independent of the halving. Pledditor pointed out that the global M2 money supply also exhibits four-year cycles, affecting not only Bitcoin but other risk assets as well.

Similar findings have been presented by Coinbase, a leading cryptocurrency exchange. Their research suggests that Bitcoin’s major bull markets have coincided with dovish monetary policies, including rounds of quantitative easing by central banks. This aligns with the theory that Bitcoin’s price is linked to macroeconomic factors.

In a video presentation, TXMC further analyzed Bitcoin’s price in relation to other indicators such as high-yield corporate credit. These indicators showed a correlation with Bitcoin’s cycle tops and bottoms, indicating the potential influence of broader market risk appetite on the cryptocurrency’s price.

The Counterargument

On the other side of the debate, proponents of the halving theory argue that the reduction in Bitcoin produced per block during each halving creates a supply crunch, leading to price increases in every cycle. Bit Paine, a member of the Bitcoin community, claims that the halving doubles the marginal production cost of Bitcoin every four years, thereby impacting its price.

The next halving is expected to occur in April 2024, resulting in a reduction of Bitcoin’s emissions from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This upcoming event has already prompted institutional analysts and Bitcoin miners to adjust their predictions and business decisions accordingly.

Despite the ongoing debate, crypto market analyst CryptoJack remains skeptical about the direct correlation between Bitcoin’s price cycles and the halving. While acknowledging some loose correlations, he suggests that the relationship may be more coincidental than causal.


The debate surrounding the relationship between Bitcoin’s price cycles and the halving continues. While some argue that macroeconomic factors heavily influence Bitcoin’s price, others believe that the halving itself plays a significant role. As the cryptocurrency market evolves, further research and analysis will be required to fully understand the dynamics that drive Bitcoin’s price movements.

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